Market Spotlight #197 | Why Spring Is When Prices Typically Move

As February begins, the housing market is quietly gearing up for its most important season. Historically, the bulk of annual home price appreciation happens in the spring, and early data from 2026 suggests this year may follow the same pattern. Mortgage rates are holding near 6.2%, nearly a full percentage point below last year. Purchase applications are up almost 20% compared to a year ago, and pending sales are higher both week‑over‑week and year‑over‑year—a clear sign that buyer demand is rebuilding.

On the supply side, inventory remains supportive for buyers but is no longer expanding quickly. New listings are up compared to last year, total inventory is nearly 10% higher, and price reductions have eased, now closer to one‑third of active listings. That means winter buyers still have leverage, but the balance is starting to shift as more demand arrives.

For agents and loan officers, this week’s message is all about timing. Waiting for “lower rates” misses the point if most price gains occur between April and June. With mortgage rates already improved from last year and buyer activity ramping, the strategic move is to help clients act before the spring wave hits full strength. Now is the time to re‑run numbers, refine search criteria, and position serious buyers to secure a home while they still enjoy both negotiating power and a calmer pace of competition.