Market Spotlight #170: The Calm Before the Next Move

The housing market delivered a quiet but meaningful week. Rates held steady—again—which might seem like a snooze to some, but for buyers and agents paying attention, it’s a window of opportunity.

📉 Why Rates Stayed Steady (and Why That Matters)

Last week brought plenty of potential for volatility: CPI data, political headlines, even whispers about Fed Chair Powell. But in the end? Mortgage rates didn’t budge. That’s not just luck—it’s the result of improving mortgage spreads, which have been working behind the scenes to hold things together even when bond markets wobble.

With spreads only 0.49% away from “normal,” we’re in a place where 6% mortgage rates are within reach—without needing the 10-year yield to drop below 4%. That’s a big deal, because we’ve seen buyer demand kick up every time rates get near that 6% range.

🏠 Inventory Up, Sellers Blinking First

While rates were calm, supply surged. New listings jumped, and price reductions hit a 2024 high at 41.3%. This is what happens when sellers face a more competitive environment. They adjust. And for buyers, that creates leverage.

Buyer activity dipped slightly last week, but it’s still stronger than it was this time last year. That’s the sweet spot—less competition than May or June, more motivated sellers, and steady rates.

📅 What’s Next?

This week brings existing and new home sales data, which will give us more insight into demand trends. But the next major rate-mover isn’t until the early August jobs report. Until then, the market could stay balanced—but we’ve seen how fast that can change.

🔑 Takeaway for Agents and LOs:

This is the window. The market is calm, but it’s not guaranteed to last. Spreads are doing the heavy lifting, and buyers still have room to negotiate before the next big shift.

💬 Use the line:

“Rates are stable, inventory is up, and sellers are making deals. Let’s help buyers move now—before the market wakes up again.”